Djurgarden 1-4 Chelsea — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 1 May 2025

📅01/05/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
6.35
Draw
24%
4.49
Away Pick
55%
1.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under
53%
2.15
Over
47%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
25%
4.02
2-3
43%
1.86
4-5
22%
3.01
6+
10%
9.33
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.02 — our 25% vs market 19.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
14.25
1/2
7%
22.9
1/X
7%
22.0
X/1
7%
16.4
X/2
25%
3.86
X/X
12%
6.82
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
23%
1.62
2/X
5%
18.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Chelsea win — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Away Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
20%
Home Win
13%
+7.6pp
24%
Draw
19%
+5.1pp
55%
Away Win
68%
-12.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
43%
+10.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
57%
-10.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.1pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Djurgarden The Market 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelsea The Market 72%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / +9%
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
206 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 479 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 41.5
Crosses 14.0
Yellow Cards 1.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Djurgarden
1-4
AWAY Chelsea
1.39 xG 2.06
42% Ball Possession 58%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
456 Passes 672
89% Pass Accuracy 93%
20 Box Touches 43
12 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Djurgarden vs Chelsea
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea cruised past Djurgarden 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Chelsea as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Djurgarden had 42% of the ball to Chelsea's 58%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.39 to 2.06.

What was the final score of Djurgarden vs Chelsea?

Djurgarden 1-4 Chelsea in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 01/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Djurgarden vs Chelsea?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Djurgarden 20%, draw 24%, Chelsea 55%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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