BFC Daugavpils 1-6 Valmiera / BSS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 1 Jun 2024

📅01/06/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.91
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
57%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.97
Over 2.5
54%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.03
No
50%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
17%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
33%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
14%
+7.2pp
22%
Draw
20%
+2.3pp
57%
Away Win
66%
-9.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
47%
-0.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
53%
+0.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
45%
+4.9pp
50%
BTTS No
55%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Valmiera / BSS EU Bookmakers 71%
-8% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -13%
0.57/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.87/0.91
-43% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -5%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
270 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 79%
13.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.5
14.4 Crosses 29.7
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Valmiera / BSS
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.82 xG 1.47
34% Ball Possession 66%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
147 Passes 369
58% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.04.2024 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 0-1 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
07.10.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-0 HT 0-0 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
22.07.2023 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 0-1 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
22.05.2023 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 1-0 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
11.04.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-1 HT 0-0 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
02.10.2022 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-1 HT 1-1 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
1-6
AWAY Valmiera / BSS
1.19 xG 3.85
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 27
3 Shots on Target 12
3 Corners 10
212 Passes 435
72% Pass Accuracy 84%
27 Box Touches 53
11 Crosses 21
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs Valmiera / BSS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valmiera / BSS ran out comfortable winners over BFC Daugavpils 6-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-5. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Valmiera / BSS as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 6-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 37% of the ball to Valmiera / BSS's 63%, shots finished 11-27, expected goals 1.19 to 3.85.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, BFC Daugavpils had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 0.50 for Valmiera / BSS.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs Valmiera / BSS?

BFC Daugavpils 1-6 Valmiera / BSS in the Latvia - Virsliga on 01/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs Valmiera / BSS?

Before kick-off our model rated an Valmiera / BSS win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 21%, draw 22%, Valmiera / BSS 57%. The final score 1-6 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valmiera / BSS), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Valmiera / BSS) ✓ Over 2.5
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