Cerezo Osaka 4-2 Shimizu S-Pulse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 1 Jun 2025

📅01/06/2025 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.33
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
37%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.15
Over 2.5
48%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.55
No
51%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.13
2-3 Goals
41%
1.87
4-5 Goals
22%
2.97
6+ Goals
10%
8.98
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.13 — our 27% vs market 18.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.47
1/2
5%
26.5
1/X
10%
12.65
X/1
10%
5.77
X/2
16%
6.18
X/X
9%
5.32
2/1
7%
24.65
2/2
16%
3.85
2/X
8%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
39%
-2.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+1.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.1pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 39%
+1% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -5%
1.46/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.18
+0% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
373 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 80%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
19.7 Crosses 17.9
1.1 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.41 xG 1.26
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
428 Passes 352
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
26.06.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-1 HT 0-1 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
12.03.2022 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 1-3 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
04.12.2021 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 2-1 HT 1-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
10.03.2021 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-1 HT 1-1 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
14.11.2020 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 3-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
08.07.2020 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-0 HT 0-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
4-2
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse
2.22 xG 1.03
49% Ball Possession 51%
20 Total Shots 14
9 Shots on Target 4
13 Corners 3
330 Passes 371
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
27 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-Pulse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka saw off Shimizu S-Pulse 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 37%) promised a tight game; Cerezo Osaka found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 49% of the ball to Shimizu S-Pulse's 51%, shots finished 20-14, expected goals 2.22 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 1.33 for Shimizu S-Pulse.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-Pulse?

Cerezo Osaka 4-2 Shimizu S-Pulse in the Japan - J1 League on 01/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-Pulse?

Before kick-off our model rated an Shimizu S-Pulse win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 36%, draw 27%, Shimizu S-Pulse 37%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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