Fransa 1-0 Belçika — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Euro, 1 Jul 2024

Fransa
1-0 HT 0-0
Belçika
📅01/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Euro – 2024

Fransa vs Belçika Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
32%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
3.1
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.77
6+ Goals
8%
16.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.68
1/2
4%
42.0
1/X
9%
12.5
X/1
16%
4.56
X/2
12%
7.96
X/X
7%
4.2
2/1
5%
26.5
2/2
16%
5.98
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
13.1
Value flag · 2/X at 13.1 — our 10% vs market 4.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
47%
-5.6pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.9pp
32%
Away Win
24%
+7.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.1pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fransa v Belçika — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fransa EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Belçika EU Bookmakers 28%
+42% / +42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
2.18/0.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/0.42
+67% / +58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +96% / +145%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
353 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 73%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Fransa vs Belçika Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fransa
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Belçika
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
2.53 xG 0.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
19 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
424 Passes 568
88% Pass Accuracy 92%
32 Box Touches 16
12 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.10.2021 Belçika Belçika 2-3 HT 2-0 Fransa Fransa AVUL
10.07.2018 Fransa Fransa 1-0 HT 0-0 Belçika Belçika DK
07.06.2015 Fransa Fransa 3-4 HT 0-2 Belçika Belçika HAZ
14.08.2013 Belçika Belçika 0-0 HT 0-0 Fransa Fransa HAZ
15.11.2011 Fransa Fransa 0-0 HT 0-0 Belçika Belçika HAZ

Fransa 1-0 Belçika — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fransa
1-0
AWAY Belçika
1.06 xG 0.23
55% Ball Possession 45%
19 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
562 Passes 442
92% Pass Accuracy 89%
39 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fransa vs Belçika
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fransa nicked a narrow win over Belçika 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fransa as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Fransa had 55% of the ball to Belçika's 45%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 1.06 to 0.23.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Fransa had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Fransa and 1.20 for Belçika.

What was the final score of Fransa vs Belçika?

Fransa 1-0 Belçika in the Euro on 01/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fransa vs Belçika?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fransa win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Fransa 42%, draw 27%, Belçika 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fransa), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fransa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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