Estrela 4-2 Al Nassr — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 1 Aug 2026

Estrela
4-2 HT 1-0
Al Nassr
📅01/08/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Friendlies – 2026

Estrela vs Al Nassr Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.94
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
37%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.33
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.2
6+ Goals
12%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.33 — our 26% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
18%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
30%
+6.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
37%
Away Win
43%
-6.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.9pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Estrela v Al Nassr — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
276 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 81%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Estrela 4-2 Al Nassr — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela
4-2
AWAY Al Nassr
2.53 xG 0.29
22 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 8
348 Passes 392
27 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Estrela vs Al Nassr
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estrela beat Al Nassr 4-2. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 26% / 37%) promised a tight game; Estrela found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, shots finished 22-7, expected goals 2.53 to 0.29.

What was the final score of Estrela vs Al Nassr?

Estrela 4-2 Al Nassr in the Friendlies on 01/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela vs Al Nassr?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estrela win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Estrela 37%, draw 26%, Al Nassr 37%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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