Mainz 05 3-3 Udinese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 1 Aug 2026

Mainz 05
3-3 HT 1-3
Udinese
📅01/08/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Friendlies – 2026

Mainz 05 vs Udinese Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
2.19
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
26%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.31
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.33
6+ Goals
10%
12.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.27
1/2
5%
29.5
1/X
5%
12.9
X/1 EV+ ✗
20%
5.22
X/2
11%
6.15
X/X
10%
4.75
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
10%
4.22
2/X
8%
13.15
Value flag · X/1 at 5.22 — our 20% vs market 14.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
42%
+9.7pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.3pp
26%
Away Win
32%
-6.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.1pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mainz 05 v Udinese — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Udinese EU Bookmakers 36%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +33% / +33%
0.16/0.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/0.34
-29% / +67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / +48%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
375 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 78%
11.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
13.0 Crosses 12.0
0.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs Udinese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 and Udinese couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Mainz 05 at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Udinese?

Mainz 05 3-3 Udinese in the Friendlies on 01/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Udinese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 51%, draw 23%, Udinese 26%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Mainz 05), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mainz 05) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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