Real Madrid 2-2 Fiorentina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 1 Aug 2026

Real Madrid
2-2 HT 2-1
Fiorentina
📅01/08/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✓ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Friendlies – 2026/2027

Real Madrid vs Fiorentina Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
33%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.61
Over 2.5
52%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.43
No
50%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.59
2-3 Goals
38%
2.01
4-5 Goals
25%
2.51
6+ Goals
12%
5.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.37
1/2
7%
30.0
1/X
7%
12.65
X/1
10%
4.91
X/2
13%
8.28
X/X
13%
6.32
2/1
10%
19.3
2/2
14%
5.28
2/X
5%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
51%
-10.2pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.2pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+7.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
35%
+13.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
65%
-13.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
66%
-15.3pp
50%
BTTS No
34%
+15.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Madrid v Fiorentina — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 30%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.69/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.36/0.93
-1% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -71% / +73%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
410 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 82%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
16.3 Crosses –
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0

Real Madrid vs Fiorentina Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Fiorentina
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
679 Passes 270
92% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 11
21 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
23.08.2017 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-1 HT 2-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina HAZ
16.08.2014 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-2 HT 1-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina HAZ

Real Madrid 2-2 Fiorentina — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
2-2
AWAY Fiorentina
0.75 xG 0.95
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
514 Passes 343
28 Box Touches 15
11 Crosses 6
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Fiorentina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid and Fiorentina shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.75 to 0.95.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Real Madrid and 1.50 for Fiorentina.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Fiorentina?

Real Madrid 2-2 Fiorentina in the Friendlies on 01/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Fiorentina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 40%, draw 26%, Fiorentina 33%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Real Madrid) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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