Moreton City Excelsior 4-3 Peninsula Power — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - Queensland NPL, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.46
Draw
19%
3.64
Away
37%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.89
Over 2.5
58%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.35
No
54%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
6.65
2-3 Goals
36%
2.14
4-5 Goals
30%
2.5
6+ Goals
12%
5.12
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
12%
X/X
8%
2/1
13%
2/2
20%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
37%
+6.6pp
19%
Draw
24%
-5.2pp
37%
Away Win
39%
-1.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
31%
+10.9pp
58%
Over 2.5
69%
-10.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
70%
-24.0pp
54%
BTTS No
30%
+24.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moreton City Excelsior EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Peninsula Power EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / +84%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
350 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 12.8
Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moreton City Excelsior
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Peninsula Power
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
10.08.2024 Moreton City Excelsior Moreton City Excelsior 1-3 HT 1-1 Peninsula Power Peninsula Power AVNPL
11.05.2024 Peninsula Power Peninsula Power 0-0 HT 0-0 Moreton City Excelsior Moreton City Excelsior AVNPL
POST-MATCH Moreton City Excelsior vs Peninsula Power
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Moreton City Excelsior squeezed past Peninsula Power 4-3. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Moreton City Excelsior as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Peninsula Power led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Moreton City Excelsior and 1.50 for Peninsula Power.

What was the final score of Moreton City Excelsior vs Peninsula Power?

Moreton City Excelsior 4-3 Peninsula Power in the Australia - Queensland NPL on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moreton City Excelsior vs Peninsula Power?

Before kick-off our model rated a Moreton City Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Moreton City Excelsior 44%, draw 19%, Peninsula Power 37%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Moreton City Excelsior), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Moreton City Excelsior) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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