Roda 1-4 De Graafschap — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.38
Over 2.5
51%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.49
No
48%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
5.05
2-3 Goals
35%
1.96
4-5 Goals
26%
2.75
6+ Goals
13%
7.17
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.05 — our 26% vs market 15.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.62
1/2
8%
30.0
1/X
5%
13.6
X/1
22%
4.75
X/2
8%
7.19
X/X
12%
6.05
2/1
8%
21.05
2/2
13%
4.6
2/X
10%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.4pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.8pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-0.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
38%
+11.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
62%
-11.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
63%
-11.2pp
48%
BTTS No
37%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roda EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -16%
1.67/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.53
+1% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
331 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 78%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
18.3 Crosses 19.5
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roda
3W-2D-1L
AWAY De Graafschap
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.23 xG 0.96
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
296 Passes 336
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
19.04.2024 Roda Roda 1-1 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
29.09.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-0 HT 0-0 Roda Roda HOL2
19.02.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-0 HT 2-0 Roda Roda HOL2
12.09.2022 Roda Roda 3-2 HT 2-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
14.03.2022 Roda Roda 2-0 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
07.08.2021 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-3 HT 0-0 Roda Roda HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roda
1-4
AWAY De Graafschap
0.94 xG 1.94
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 0
315 Passes 389
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
10 Box Touches 32
10 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Roda vs De Graafschap
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap cruised past Roda 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Roda at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Roda had 47% of the ball to De Graafschap's 53%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 0.94 to 1.94.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roda had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Roda and 0.83 for De Graafschap.

What was the final score of Roda vs De Graafschap?

Roda 1-4 De Graafschap in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roda vs De Graafschap?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roda win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Roda 45%, draw 27%, De Graafschap 28%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Roda) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Roda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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