Pogon Siedlce 1-1 Stal Rzeszow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.17
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
47%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.18
Over 2.5
55%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.89
4-5 Goals
25%
2.94
6+ Goals
12%
8.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
16%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
23%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
28%
+1.5pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.6pp
47%
Away Win
46%
+0.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.9pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Siedlce EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Stal Rzeszow EU Bookmakers 50%
-10% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
0.40/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/0.70
-65% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +52%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
296 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Siedlce
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Stal Rzeszow
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 4
01.05.2022 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 1-4 HT 0-1 Stal Rzeszow Stal Rzeszow POL2
07.04.2021 Stal Rzeszow Stal Rzeszow 1-5 HT 0-1 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL2
05.09.2020 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 0-2 HT 0-0 Stal Rzeszow Stal Rzeszow POL2
17.11.2019 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 2-1 HT 2-0 Stal Rzeszow Stal Rzeszow POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Siedlce
1-1
AWAY Stal Rzeszow
48% Ball Possession 52%
29 Total Shots 18
10 Shots on Target 6
13 Corners 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pogon Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Siedlce and Stal Rzeszow couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Stal Rzeszow at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pogon Siedlce had 48% of the ball to Stal Rzeszow's 52%, shots finished 29-18.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Pogon Siedlce and 2.00 for Stal Rzeszow.

What was the final score of Pogon Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszow?

Pogon Siedlce 1-1 Stal Rzeszow in the Poland - 1st Division on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszow?

Before kick-off our model rated an Stal Rzeszow win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Pogon Siedlce 30%, draw 24%, Stal Rzeszow 47%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Stal Rzeszow), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Stal Rzeszow) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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