Esbjerg 3-2 HB Koge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 1 Sep 2025

Esbjerg
3-2 HT 2-0
HB Koge
📅01/09/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Denmark 1st Division – 2025/2026

Esbjerg vs HB Koge Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.53
No
40%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.12
2-3 Goals
38%
1.94
4-5 Goals
27%
2.52
6+ Goals
13%
5.93
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.97
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
4%
13.7
X/1
18%
4.42
X/2
13%
10.45
X/X
10%
6.54
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
18.9
2/2
9%
7.32
2/X
8%
15.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.9 — our 9% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-7.6pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.6pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+7.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.0pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.0pp
60%
BTTS Yes
61%
-1.6pp
40%
BTTS No
39%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Esbjerg v HB Koge — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY HB Koge EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -1%
2.57/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.79
+12% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
377 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 75%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
17.7 Crosses 14.0
0.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Esbjerg vs HB Koge Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Esbjerg
3W-1D-2L
AWAY HB Koge
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.18 xG 1.17
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
336 Passes 307
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.02.2025 HB Koge HB Koge 0-2 HT 0-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
24.08.2024 Esbjerg Esbjerg 4-1 HT 1-0 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1
07.05.2022 HB Koge HB Koge 2-1 HT 2-1 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
23.04.2022 Esbjerg Esbjerg 0-0 HT 0-0 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1
19.11.2021 HB Koge HB Koge 3-0 HT 3-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
04.10.2021 Esbjerg Esbjerg 2-0 HT 0-0 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1

Esbjerg 3-2 HB Koge — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Esbjerg
3-2
AWAY HB Koge
1.92 xG 1.38
55% Ball Possession 45%
20 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 1
437 Passes 340
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
51 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Esbjerg vs HB Koge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esbjerg squeezed past HB Koge 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Esbjerg as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, Esbjerg had 55% of the ball to HB Koge's 45%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 1.92 to 1.38.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Esbjerg had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Esbjerg and 1.00 for HB Koge.

What was the final score of Esbjerg vs HB Koge?

Esbjerg 3-2 HB Koge in the Denmark 1st Division on 01/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esbjerg vs HB Koge?

Before kick-off our model rated a Esbjerg win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Esbjerg 50%, draw 23%, HB Koge 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Esbjerg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Esbjerg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →