Pro Patria 1-1 Novara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 1 Oct 2024

📅01/10/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.8
Draw
41%
2.77
Away
31%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
73%
1.41
Over
27%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.27
No
59%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1
39%
1.99
2-3
43%
1.85
4-5
12%
6.66
6+
6%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
16%
X/X
20%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 73%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Draw Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
28%
Home Win
32%
-4.2pp
41%
Draw
33%
+8.2pp
31%
Away Win
35%
-4.0pp
73%
Under 2.5
67%
+6.0pp
27%
Over 2.5
33%
-6.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
40%
+0.5pp
59%
BTTS No
60%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pro Patria The Market 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Novara The Market 38%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -12%
0.94/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.46
-16% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -25%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
313 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pro Patria
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Novara
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.01.2024 Pro Patria Pro Patria 3-0 HT 1-0 Novara Novara İTC
10.09.2023 Novara Novara 1-2 HT 0-2 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
15.03.2023 Pro Patria Pro Patria 1-1 HT 1-0 Novara Novara İTC
12.11.2022 Novara Novara 1-0 HT 1-0 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
11.04.2021 Pro Patria Pro Patria 1-3 HT 0-0 Novara Novara İTC
20.12.2020 Novara Novara 0-0 HT 0-0 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pro Patria
1-1
AWAY Novara
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pro Patria vs Novara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pro Patria and Novara couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had the draw as the likeliest outcome at 41%, and the draw held. On goals, under 2.5 goals (73%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Pro Patria had 51% of the ball to Novara's 49%, shots finished 13-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Pro Patria and 1.00 for Novara.

What was the final score of Pro Patria vs Novara?

Pro Patria 1-1 Novara in the Italy - Serie C on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pro Patria vs Novara?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Pro Patria 28%, draw 41%, Novara 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Draw), Under 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Draw) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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