Novorizontino 2-1 Ponte Preta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 1 Oct 2024

📅01/10/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.57
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.51
Over 2.5
34%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.51
No
63%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2.24
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
15%
5.51
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
59%
-10.8pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.2pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+6.6pp
66%
Under 2.5
62%
+3.5pp
34%
Over 2.5
38%
-3.5pp
37%
BTTS Yes
36%
+1.4pp
63%
BTTS No
64%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Ponte Preta EU Bookmakers 19%
-6% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.21/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.20
-21% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +22%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
345 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 78%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.7
24.7 Crosses 15.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novorizontino
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Ponte Preta
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.29 xG 1.07
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
264 Passes 276
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 14
25 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 4
15.06.2024 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-0 HT 1-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
28.10.2023 Novorizontino Novorizontino 2-0 HT 0-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
03.07.2023 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-0 HT 0-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
26.08.2022 Novorizontino Novorizontino 1-1 HT 1-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
14.05.2022 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 0-1 HT 0-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
03.02.2022 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 2-0 HT 1-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BREPAU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novorizontino
2-1
AWAY Ponte Preta
1.74 xG 0.55
35% Ball Possession 65%
17 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
179 Passes 410
65% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novorizontino squeezed past Ponte Preta 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Novorizontino as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Novorizontino had 35% of the ball to Ponte Preta's 65%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.74 to 0.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ponte Preta led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Novorizontino and 0.83 for Ponte Preta.

What was the final score of Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta?

Novorizontino 2-1 Ponte Preta in the Brazil - Serie B on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novorizontino win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Novorizontino 48%, draw 30%, Ponte Preta 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Novorizontino) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Novorizontino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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