Ponte Preta 1-0 Novorizontino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 15 Jun 2024

📅15/06/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.38
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.48
Over 2.5
39%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.09
No
60%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.22
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
17%
5.57
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
17%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
38%
+3.4pp
27%
Draw
31%
-3.8pp
31%
Away Win
31%
+0.4pp
61%
Under 2.5
64%
-2.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
36%
+2.5pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.2pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ponte Preta EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -1%
1.26/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.11
+1% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
303 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 78%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
21.1 Crosses 20.4
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ponte Preta
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Novorizontino
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.05 xG 1.43
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
266 Passes 278
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
14 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2023 Novorizontino Novorizontino 2-0 HT 0-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
03.07.2023 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-0 HT 0-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
26.08.2022 Novorizontino Novorizontino 1-1 HT 1-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
14.05.2022 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 0-1 HT 0-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
03.02.2022 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 2-0 HT 1-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BREPAU
21.05.2021 Novorizontino Novorizontino 2-0 HT 1-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BREPAU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ponte Preta
1-0
AWAY Novorizontino
1.16 xG 0.58
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
328 Passes 193
80% Pass Accuracy 68%
16 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 21
6 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ponte Preta squeezed past Novorizontino 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ponte Preta as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Ponte Preta had 59% of the ball to Novorizontino's 41%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.16 to 0.58.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Novorizontino led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Ponte Preta and 1.00 for Novorizontino.

What was the final score of Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino?

Ponte Preta 1-0 Novorizontino in the Brazil - Serie B on 15/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ponte Preta win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Ponte Preta 42%, draw 27%, Novorizontino 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ponte Preta), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ponte Preta) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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