America Mineiro 2-1 CRB — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 15 Jun 2024

📅15/06/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
25%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.79
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.18
6+ Goals
10%
20.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.79 — our 32% vs market 29.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
57%
-8.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+7.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.6pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME America Mineiro EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY CRB EU Bookmakers 21%
+2% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
1.49/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.39
-1% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
341 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 76%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
23.4 Crosses 15.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME America Mineiro
4W-1D-1L
AWAY CRB
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.55 xG 0.75
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
315 Passes 279
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.12.2020 America Mineiro America Mineiro 1-0 HT 1-0 CRB CRB BR2
29.09.2020 CRB CRB 0-0 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
04.10.2019 America Mineiro America Mineiro 1-0 HT 1-0 CRB CRB BR2
09.06.2019 CRB CRB 1-3 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
25.11.2017 America Mineiro America Mineiro 1-0 HT 0-0 CRB CRB BR2
05.08.2017 CRB CRB 2-1 HT 2-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME America Mineiro
2-1
AWAY CRB
2.33 xG 0.89
54% Ball Possession 46%
28 Total Shots 3
11 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 1
436 Passes 339
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
33 Box Touches 3
14 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH America Mineiro vs CRB
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

America Mineiro edged past CRB 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had America Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, America Mineiro had 54% of the ball to CRB's 46%, shots finished 28-3, expected goals 2.33 to 0.89 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold America Mineiro's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, America Mineiro had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for America Mineiro and 0.50 for CRB.

What was the final score of America Mineiro vs CRB?

America Mineiro 2-1 CRB in the Brazil - Serie B on 15/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for America Mineiro vs CRB?

Before kick-off our model rated a America Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split America Mineiro 49%, draw 26%, CRB 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (America Mineiro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (America Mineiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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