Arsenal U19 1-0 Paris SG U19 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA - Youth League, 1 Oct 2024

📅01/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.75
Draw
18%
3.8
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under
38%
2.38
Over
62%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
64%
1.55
No
36%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1
14%
5.08
2-3
37%
1.96
4-5
34%
2.74
6+
15%
7.1
Value flag · 4-5 at 2.74 — our 34% vs market 30.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
24%
X/2
12%
X/X
4%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 64%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
53%
+2.1pp
18%
Draw
23%
-4.9pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.8pp
38%
Under 2.5
38%
+0.3pp
62%
Over 2.5
62%
-0.3pp
64%
BTTS Yes
60%
+3.4pp
36%
BTTS No
40%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal U19 EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Paris SG U19 EU Bookmakers 27%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.49/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/2.22
-27% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -30%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
426 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.0
Crosses 6.0
Yellow Cards 1.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal U19
1-0
AWAY Paris SG U19
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arsenal U19 vs Paris SG U19
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal U19 edged past Paris SG U19 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Arsenal U19 as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arsenal U19 had 36% of the ball to Paris SG U19's 64%, shots finished 10-15.

What was the final score of Arsenal U19 vs Paris SG U19?

Arsenal U19 1-0 Paris SG U19 in the UEFA - Youth League on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal U19 vs Paris SG U19?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal U19 win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Arsenal U19 55%, draw 18%, Paris SG U19 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal U19) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal U19) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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