Atletico Nacional 2-0 Independiente Medellin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Cup, 1 Nov 2024

Atletico Nacional
2-0 HT 1-0
Independiente Medellin
📅01/11/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Colombia - Cup – 2024

Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
26%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.62
Over 2.5
45%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
45%
+1.0pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.9pp
26%
Away Win
26%
-0.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
58%
-3.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
42%
+3.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.3pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Nacional v Independiente Medellin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 30%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.23/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.90
-15% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +50% / -35%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
314 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Independiente Medellin
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.99 xG 1.06
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
238 Passes 334
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.04.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-2 HT 1-2 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
03.12.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-5 HT 0-2 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
20.11.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-1 HT 2-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
15.10.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
10.09.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
30.04.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-3 HT 0-2 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional beat Independiente Medellin 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atletico Nacional as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atletico Nacional and 2.17 for Independiente Medellin.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?

Atletico Nacional 2-0 Independiente Medellin in the Colombia - Cup on 01/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 46%, draw 28%, Independiente Medellin 26%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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