Independiente Medellin 2-2 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 22 Apr 2024

📅22/04/2024 · 🕒02:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
69%
1.6
Over 2.5
31%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
1.96
No
63%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
43%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
26%
X/2
10%
X/X
18%
2/1
4%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.6pp
31%
Draw
29%
+1.8pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-1.2pp
69%
Under 2.5
59%
+10.1pp
31%
Over 2.5
41%
-10.1pp
37%
BTTS Yes
47%
-10.0pp
63%
BTTS No
53%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +6%
1.15/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.12
+1% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +22%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
303 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 75%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
16.7 Crosses 14.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.19 xG 1.20
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
342 Passes 260
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.12.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-5 HT 0-2 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
20.11.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-1 HT 2-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
15.10.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
10.09.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
30.04.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-3 HT 0-2 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
26.03.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Medellin
2-2
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.74 xG 0.60
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
266 Passes 273
73% Pass Accuracy 76%
12 Box Touches 11
10 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin and Atletico Nacional shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Independiente Medellin at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (69%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Independiente Medellin had 50% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 50%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 0.74 to 0.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.00 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?

Independiente Medellin 2-2 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 22/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 42%, draw 31%, Atletico Nacional 28%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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