Sporting CP 5-1 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 1 Nov 2024

📅01/11/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
70%
1.16
Draw
18%
7.78
Away
12%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
3.14
Over 2.5
57%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.27
No
55%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
7.95
2-3 Goals
37%
2.3
4-5 Goals
28%
2.39
6+ Goals
15%
4.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
45%
1.17
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
34.5
X/1
16%
3.55
X/2
4%
34.5
X/X
6%
14.6
2/1
9%
26.0
2/2
3%
34.5
2/X
4%
34.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
70%
Home Win
82%
-12.2pp
18%
Draw
10%
+7.3pp
12%
Away Win
7%
+4.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
28%
+14.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
72%
-14.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
40%
+4.9pp
55%
BTTS No
60%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela EU Bookmakers 9%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
2.43/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.56/2.00
+7% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / +28%
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
444 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 75%
34.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.4
23.7 Crosses 11.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Estrela
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.25 xG 1.41
64% Ball Possession 36%
23 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
517 Passes 268
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
36 Box Touches 8
19 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
29.03.2024 Estrela Estrela 1-2 HT 1-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
05.11.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-2 HT 1-0 Estrela Estrela POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP
5-1
AWAY Estrela
3.33 xG 1.95
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 5
12 Corners 2
423 Passes 218
88% Pass Accuracy 82%
42 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sporting CP vs Estrela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP cruised past Estrela 5-1. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Sporting CP had 64% of the ball to Estrela's 36%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 3.33 to 1.95.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Sporting CP had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Sporting CP and 1.50 for Estrela.

What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Estrela?

Sporting CP 5-1 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 01/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP 70%, draw 18%, Estrela 12%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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