Estrela 1-2 Sporting CP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 29 Mar 2024

Estrela
1-2 HT 1-2
Sporting CP
📅29/03/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Estrela vs Sporting CP Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
7.95
Draw
18%
4.95
Away
64%
1.28
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.21
Over 2.5
58%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.06
No
52%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.44
2-3 Goals
41%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
2.92
6+ Goals
14%
8.62
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
17.3
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
23.6
1/X
5%
24.85
X/1
4%
21.3
X/2
19%
3.34
X/X
7%
7.86
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
36%
1.47
2/X
7%
24.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.6 — our 9% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
10%
+8.3pp
18%
Draw
17%
+1.3pp
64%
Away Win
73%
-9.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.8pp
52%
BTTS No
56%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Estrela v Sporting CP — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 78%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.17/2.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.08/0.79
+30% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -23%
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
263 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 492 · 85%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.9
20.3 Crosses 22.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4

Estrela vs Sporting CP Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Sporting CP
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.62 xG 2.29
35% Ball Possession 65%
6 Total Shots 25
4 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 6
283 Passes 600
77% Pass Accuracy 88%
9 Box Touches 37
5 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
05.11.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-2 HT 1-0 Estrela Estrela POR

Estrela 1-2 Sporting CP — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela
1-2
AWAY Sporting CP
1.20 xG 2.22
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
253 Passes 434
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
7 Box Touches 34
10 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Estrela vs Sporting CP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP nicked a narrow win over Estrela 2-1 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Estrela had 38% of the ball to Sporting CP's 62%, shots finished 6-21, expected goals 1.20 to 2.22.

What was the final score of Estrela vs Sporting CP?

Estrela 1-2 Sporting CP in the Portugal - Premier League on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela vs Sporting CP?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Estrela 18%, draw 18%, Sporting CP 64%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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