Gil Vicente 1-2 Famalicao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 29 Mar 2024

📅29/03/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.38
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
29%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.6
Over 2.5
41%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.9
No
58%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.53
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.68
6+ Goals
9%
25.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.53 — our 34% vs market 33.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.66
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.65
X/1 EV+ ✗
23%
5.06
X/2
10%
5.69
X/X
15%
3.86
2/1
6%
32.5
2/2
14%
4.32
2/X
6%
13.75
Value flag · X/1 at 5.06 — our 23% vs market 15.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
38%
+3.8pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.6pp
29%
Away Win
32%
-3.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.4pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Famalicao EU Bookmakers 36%
-1% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.38/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.26
+0% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
325 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
22.0 Crosses 18.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gil Vicente
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Famalicao
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.50 xG 1.00
55% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
360 Passes 291
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
04.11.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 3-1 HT 2-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
12.02.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 0-1 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
22.08.2022 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 0-0 HT 0-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
15.04.2022 Famalicao Famalicao 2-2 HT 2-1 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
05.12.2021 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 4-0 HT 3-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
22.04.2021 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 0-3 HT 0-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gil Vicente
1-2
AWAY Famalicao
2.03 xG 2.50
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
382 Passes 291
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gil Vicente vs Famalicao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Famalicao edged past Gil Vicente 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Gil Vicente at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gil Vicente had 55% of the ball to Famalicao's 45%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 2.03 to 2.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gil Vicente and 1.33 for Famalicao.

What was the final score of Gil Vicente vs Famalicao?

Gil Vicente 1-2 Famalicao in the Portugal - Premier League on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gil Vicente vs Famalicao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gil Vicente win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Gil Vicente 42%, draw 29%, Famalicao 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gil Vicente) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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