Benfica vs Chaves Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Benfica v Chaves — Team-Based Signals
Benfica vs Chaves Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-0
Benfica
POR
1-0
HT 0-0
Benfica
POR
5-0
HT 3-0
Chaves
POR
4-0
HT 3-0
Chaves
POR
4-0
HT 3-0
Chaves
POR
2-2
HT 0-1
Benfica
POR
Benfica 1-0 Chaves — Actual Match Statistics
Benfica edged past Chaves 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (62%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Benfica had 67% of the ball to Chaves's 33%, shots finished 22-7, expected goals 3.67 to 0.56 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Benfica's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Benfica and 0.50 for Chaves.
What was the final score of Benfica vs Chaves?
Benfica 1-0 Chaves in the Portugal - Premier League on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Benfica vs Chaves?
Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Benfica 70%, draw 17%, Chaves 13%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.