Ümraniyespor 3-3 Gençlerbirliği — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 1 Dec 2024

📅01/12/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
33%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.89
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
4.14
6+ Goals
8%
19.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.89 — our 32% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.98
1/2
10%
31.0
1/X
9%
13.75
X/1
14%
5.54
X/2
11%
5.34
X/X
9%
4.29
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
12%
3.77
2/X
9%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
36%
+4.2pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.0pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-3.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.5pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Gençlerbirliği EU Bookmakers 40%
+6% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +12%
1.31/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.30
+7% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -2%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
242 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 76%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
17.9 Crosses 16.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ümraniyespor
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Gençlerbirliği
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.43 xG 1.50
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
390 Passes 239
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
14.01.2024 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-1 HT 0-1 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L
13.08.2023 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 2-1 HT 2-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
21.05.2022 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 2-4 HT 1-2 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
26.12.2021 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 3-1 HT 2-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L
23.02.2019 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 2-1 HT 1-0 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
22.09.2018 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 0-2 HT 0-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ümraniyespor
3-3
AWAY Gençlerbirliği
0.74 xG 1.26
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 1
324 Passes 299
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 11
15 Crosses 9
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ümraniyespor vs Gençlerbirliği
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ümraniyespor and Gençlerbirliği couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ümraniyespor had 52% of the ball to Gençlerbirliği's 48%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 0.74 to 1.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gençlerbirliği led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Ümraniyespor and 1.67 for Gençlerbirliği.

What was the final score of Ümraniyespor vs Gençlerbirliği?

Ümraniyespor 3-3 Gençlerbirliği in the Turkey - 1st Division on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ümraniyespor vs Gençlerbirliği?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ümraniyespor win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Ümraniyespor 40%, draw 27%, Gençlerbirliği 33%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ümraniyespor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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