Brisbane Roar 1-1 Wellington Phoenix — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 2 Feb 2024

📅02/02/2024 · 🕒11:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.38
Over 2.5
49%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.49
No
51%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
5.05
2-3 Goals
37%
1.94
4-5 Goals
23%
2.73
6+ Goals
12%
7.08
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.05 — our 28% vs market 15.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.63
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
7%
12.55
X/1
16%
4.88
X/2
12%
7.37
X/X
15%
5.67
2/1
7%
21.3
2/2
14%
4.65
2/X
6%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
47%
-7.4pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.9pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+4.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
38%
+13.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
62%
-13.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
63%
-13.7pp
51%
BTTS No
37%
+13.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +13%
1.70/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/1.38
-6% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +25%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
369 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 379 · 81%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
19.3 Crosses 16.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brisbane Roar
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.41 xG 2.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
18 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
421 Passes 466
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
27 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.11.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 5-2 HT 2-1 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
16.04.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-2 HT 1-1 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
14.01.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-1 HT 0-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
30.03.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-3 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
12.03.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 2-1 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
16.02.2022 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 3-0 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brisbane Roar
1-1
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
1.33 xG 1.18
53% Ball Possession 47%
21 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 0
590 Passes 517
93% Pass Accuracy 90%
31 Box Touches 13
27 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brisbane Roar and Wellington Phoenix shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Brisbane Roar had 53% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 47%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 1.33 to 1.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Brisbane Roar and 2.50 for Wellington Phoenix.

What was the final score of Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix?

Brisbane Roar 1-1 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 02/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brisbane Roar win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar 39%, draw 27%, Wellington Phoenix 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Brisbane Roar), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brisbane Roar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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