Perth Glory 4-2 Melbourne City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 2 Feb 2024

Perth Glory
4-2 HT 1-1
Melbourne City
📅02/02/2024 · 🕒13:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Perth Glory vs Melbourne City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.57
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
39%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.59
Over 2.5
57%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.41
No
47%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.83
2-3 Goals
39%
2.04
4-5 Goals
26%
2.57
6+ Goals
14%
5.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.82
1/2
6%
21.75
1/X
6%
12.45
X/1
9%
6.56
X/2
8%
5.45
X/X
11%
5.98
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
25.5
2/2
25%
2.96
2/X
7%
12.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 6% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
35%
+2.2pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.5pp
39%
Away Win
41%
-1.7pp
43%
Under 2.5
35%
+8.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
65%
-8.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
67%
-14.2pp
47%
BTTS No
33%
+14.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Perth Glory v Melbourne City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Perth Glory EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 45%
-5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -7%
1.51/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.47
+18% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
366 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 412 · 82%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
20.8 Crosses 17.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Perth Glory vs Melbourne City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Perth Glory
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Melbourne City
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.88 xG 2.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
292 Passes 487
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 37
11 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.12.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 1-2 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
11.02.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 2-4 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
05.11.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 4-0 HT 0-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
04.05.2022 Perth Glory Perth Glory 2-0 HT 1-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
02.03.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 2-2 HT 2-1 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
08.12.2021 Melbourne City Melbourne City 1-0 HT 0-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS

Perth Glory 4-2 Melbourne City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Perth Glory
4-2
AWAY Melbourne City
3.06 xG 2.27
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 8
273 Passes 458
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
25 Box Touches 32
16 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Perth Glory vs Melbourne City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Perth Glory got the better of Melbourne City 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 23% / 39% — and on the day Perth Glory made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Perth Glory had 39% of the ball to Melbourne City's 61%, shots finished 14-18, expected goals 3.06 to 2.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Perth Glory and 2.17 for Melbourne City.

What was the final score of Perth Glory vs Melbourne City?

Perth Glory 4-2 Melbourne City in the Australia - A-League on 02/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Perth Glory vs Melbourne City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Perth Glory 37%, draw 23%, Melbourne City 39%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Melbourne City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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