Connahs Quay 1-1 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 2 Feb 2024

📅02/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.61
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
22%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.89
Over 2.5
59%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.46
No
47%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
6.58
2-3 Goals
34%
2.13
4-5 Goals
25%
2.48
6+ Goals
15%
5.12
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
23%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
58%
-0.3pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.6pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+0.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
31%
+10.3pp
59%
Over 2.5
69%
-10.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
64%
-11.1pp
47%
BTTS No
36%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 24%
+8% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +7%
2.16/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.54
+12% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +68% / +5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
446 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Connahs Quay
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
27.10.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 6-1 HT 5-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
14.10.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 4-1 HT 2-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GALWK
01.09.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-4 HT 0-1 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
18.11.2022 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 3-3 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
27.09.2022 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-2 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
09.11.2021 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Connahs Quay
1-1
AWAY Caernarfon Town
68% Ball Possession 32%
20 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 4
13 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Connahs Quay vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Connahs Quay and Caernarfon Town couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. Connahs Quay carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Connahs Quay had 68% of the ball to Caernarfon Town's 32%, shots finished 20-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Connahs Quay had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for Connahs Quay and 0.83 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Connahs Quay vs Caernarfon Town?

Connahs Quay 1-1 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 02/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Connahs Quay vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Connahs Quay win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Connahs Quay 58%, draw 21%, Caernarfon Town 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Connahs Quay), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Connahs Quay) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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