Hatayspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 2 Feb 2024

📅02/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
36%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.62
Over 2.5
42%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.53
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.62
6+ Goals
7%
25.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.53 — our 36% vs market 33.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
4.07
1/2
8%
33.0
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1 EV+ ✗
22%
5.44
X/2
11%
5.18
X/X
17%
3.87
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
17%
3.8
2/X
4%
13.65
Value flag · X/1 at 5.44 — our 22% vs market 13.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
35%
+0.7pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.7pp
36%
Away Win
36%
+0.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
58%
+0.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
42%
-0.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.2pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hatayspor EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 39%
-5% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
1.12/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.46
-25% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
336 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 77%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
21.2 Crosses 17.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hatayspor
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.49 xG 1.33
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
331 Passes 400
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.09.2023 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 HT 0-0 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
15.10.2022 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 HT 2-0 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
12.03.2022 Hatayspor Hatayspor 3-0 HT 2-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
24.10.2021 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 HT 1-1 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
06.04.2021 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 HT 0-0 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
12.12.2020 Hatayspor Hatayspor 3-1 HT 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hatayspor
3-1
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
1.83 xG 1.92
39% Ball Possession 61%
5 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
223 Passes 400
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 30
11 Crosses 25
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hatayspor saw off Fatih Karagümrük 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 29% / 36% — and on the day Hatayspor made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hatayspor had 39% of the ball to Fatih Karagümrük's 61%, shots finished 5-17, expected goals 1.83 to 1.92.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Hatayspor and 1.00 for Fatih Karagümrük.

What was the final score of Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Hatayspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük in the Turkey - Super League on 02/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hatayspor win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Hatayspor 36%, draw 29%, Fatih Karagümrük 36%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/29/36) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
TSL More Turkey - Super League
2 Feb 2024
17:00 MKE Ankaragücü vs Sivasspor Analysis →
20:00 Samsunspor vs Galatasaray Analysis →