Montrose 4-3 Alloa Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - 1st Division, 2 Mar 2024

Montrose
4-3 HT 2-2
Alloa Athletic
📅02/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Scotland - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Montrose vs Alloa Athletic Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.5
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.41
6+ Goals
11%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 28% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-0.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+2.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.6pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Montrose v Alloa Athletic — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montrose EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Alloa Athletic EU Bookmakers 37%
+4% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +23%
1.45/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.78/1.26
-11% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
276 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 81%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Montrose vs Alloa Athletic Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montrose
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Alloa Athletic
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
The Meetings
23.12.2023 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic 2-2 HT 0-0 Montrose Montrose İK1
07.10.2023 Montrose Montrose 2-1 HT 1-0 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic İK1
29.04.2023 Montrose Montrose 0-4 HT 0-2 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic İK1
25.02.2023 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic 1-0 HT 0-0 Montrose Montrose İK1
03.12.2022 Montrose Montrose 0-0 HT 0-0 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic İK1
17.09.2022 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic 2-1 HT 0-0 Montrose Montrose İK1
POST-MATCH Montrose vs Alloa Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montrose edged past Alloa Athletic 4-3. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 25% / 35%) promised a tight game; Montrose found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alloa Athletic led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Montrose and 1.67 for Alloa Athletic.

What was the final score of Montrose vs Alloa Athletic?

Montrose 4-3 Alloa Athletic in the Scotland - 1st Division on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montrose vs Alloa Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Montrose win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Montrose 40%, draw 25%, Alloa Athletic 35%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Montrose), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Montrose) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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