Monza 1-4 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 2 Mar 2024

Monza
1-4 HT 0-2
Roma
📅02/03/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Monza vs Roma Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.29
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
45%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.16
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
24%
3.71
6+ Goals
11%
15.55
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.71 — our 24% vs market 21.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.33
1/2
8%
26.0
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
12%
7.17
X/2
13%
4.56
X/X
9%
4.45
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.81
2/X
10%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
27%
+1.9pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.1pp
45%
Away Win
46%
-1.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.0pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Monza v Roma — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monza EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma EU Bookmakers 49%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -8%
1.11/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/0.97
-24% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -21%
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
311 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 82%
17.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
16.9 Crosses 18.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3

Monza vs Roma Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monza
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Roma
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.73 xG 1.54
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
444 Passes 324
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 32
16 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.10.2023 Roma Roma 1-0 HT 0-0 Monza Monza İTA
03.05.2023 Monza Monza 1-1 HT 1-1 Roma Roma İTA
30.08.2022 Roma Roma 3-0 HT 2-0 Monza Monza İTA

Monza 1-4 Roma — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monza
1-4
AWAY Roma
0.89 xG 1.84
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
391 Passes 397
91% Pass Accuracy 89%
20 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Monza vs Roma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma cruised past Monza 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Roma as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Monza had 49% of the ball to Roma's 51%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 0.89 to 1.84.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Roma led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Monza and 1.67 for Roma.

What was the final score of Monza vs Roma?

Monza 1-4 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monza vs Roma?

Before kick-off our model rated an Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Monza 29%, draw 26%, Roma 45%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Roma) ✓ BTTS Yes
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