Udinese 1-1 Salernitana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 2 Mar 2024

Udinese
1-1 HT 1-1
Salernitana
📅02/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Udinese vs Salernitana Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.66
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.12
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.75
6+ Goals
10%
15.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 28% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.15
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.15
X/1
11%
3.85
X/2
6%
10.05
X/X
15%
4.81
2/1
11%
24.85
2/2
11%
8.18
2/X
5%
16.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
56%
-4.6pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.7pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+3.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Udinese v Salernitana — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Udinese EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Salernitana EU Bookmakers 22%
-10% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -5%
1.67/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.67
-15% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
379 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 76%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
19.1 Crosses 16.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7

Udinese vs Salernitana Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Udinese
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Salernitana
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.44 xG 1.24
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
309 Passes 332
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
28.08.2023 Salernitana Salernitana 1-1 HT 0-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
27.05.2023 Salernitana Salernitana 3-2 HT 1-2 Udinese Udinese İTA
20.08.2022 Udinese Udinese 0-0 HT 0-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
22.05.2022 Salernitana Salernitana 0-4 HT 0-3 Udinese Udinese İTA
20.04.2022 Udinese Udinese 0-1 HT 0-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTA

Udinese 1-1 Salernitana — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Udinese
1-1
AWAY Salernitana
1.81 xG 1.10
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 6
326 Passes 319
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 13
25 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Udinese vs Salernitana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Udinese and Salernitana couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Udinese at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Udinese had 50% of the ball to Salernitana's 50%, shots finished 18-17, expected goals 1.81 to 1.10.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Salernitana led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Udinese and 1.00 for Salernitana.

What was the final score of Udinese vs Salernitana?

Udinese 1-1 Salernitana in the Italy - Serie A on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Udinese vs Salernitana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Udinese win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Udinese 51%, draw 26%, Salernitana 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Udinese), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Udinese) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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