Schott Mainz 1-2 Homburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
5.34
Draw
25%
4.49
Away
57%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
2.63
Over 2.5
67%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%
1.6
No
35%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
33%
6+ Goals
18%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
7%
X/2
12%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
37%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
15%
+3.0pp
25%
Draw
19%
+6.1pp
57%
Away Win
66%
-9.1pp
33%
Under 2.5
34%
-0.9pp
67%
Over 2.5
66%
+0.9pp
65%
BTTS Yes
58%
+6.1pp
35%
BTTS No
42%
-6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Schott Mainz EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Homburg EU Bookmakers 70%
+0% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.36/2.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.51/0.60
+31% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +70%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
233 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 469 · 86%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Schott Mainz
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Homburg
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
32% Ball Possession 68%
5 Total Shots 23
2 Shots on Target 10
1 Corners 10
3 Yellow Cards 0
29.08.2023 Homburg Homburg 2-2 HT 0-2 Schott Mainz Schott Mainz ALMBÖL
05.03.2022 Schott Mainz Schott Mainz 0-3 HT 0-1 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
18.09.2021 Homburg Homburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Schott Mainz Schott Mainz ALMBÖL
20.02.2021 Homburg Homburg 2-1 HT 2-1 Schott Mainz Schott Mainz ALMBÖL
15.09.2020 Schott Mainz Schott Mainz 3-0 HT 1-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Schott Mainz
1-2
AWAY Homburg
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 8
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Schott Mainz vs Homburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Homburg edged past Schott Mainz 2-1 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Homburg as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (67%), both teams to score (65%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Schott Mainz had 47% of the ball to Homburg's 53%, shots finished 10-15.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Homburg led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Schott Mainz and 1.60 for Homburg.

What was the final score of Schott Mainz vs Homburg?

Schott Mainz 1-2 Homburg in the Germany - Regional League on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Schott Mainz vs Homburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Homburg win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Schott Mainz 18%, draw 25%, Homburg 57%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Homburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Homburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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