Cercle Brugge 2-3 Mechelen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.96
Draw
19%
3.28
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.75
Over 2.5
45%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.95
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.96
6+ Goals
10%
18.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 31% vs market 28.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.77
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.6
X/1
19%
4.4
X/2
15%
7.27
X/X
7%
4.35
2/1
10%
26.5
2/2
13%
5.62
2/X
6%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
47%
+1.7pp
19%
Draw
27%
-8.1pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.1pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cercle Brugge EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Mechelen EU Bookmakers 29%
-6% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -10%
1.63/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.97
-13% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -23%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
357 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 75%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
20.6 Crosses 16.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cercle Brugge
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Mechelen
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.96 xG 1.49
39% Ball Possession 61%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 10
161 Passes 309
57% Pass Accuracy 70%
23 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2023 Mechelen Mechelen 0-2 HT 0-0 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
23.12.2022 Mechelen Mechelen 1-1 HT 0-1 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
13.08.2022 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 0-0 HT 0-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
26.02.2022 Mechelen Mechelen 2-2 HT 2-2 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
01.12.2021 Mechelen Mechelen 2-1 HT 0-1 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEK
27.11.2021 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 3-1 HT 1-1 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cercle Brugge
2-3
AWAY Mechelen
0.86 xG 2.83
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
243 Passes 296
65% Pass Accuracy 69%
37 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cercle Brugge vs Mechelen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mechelen nicked a narrow win over Cercle Brugge 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Cercle Brugge at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cercle Brugge had 47% of the ball to Mechelen's 53%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 0.86 to 2.83 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Mechelen's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cercle Brugge had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.00 for Mechelen.

What was the final score of Cercle Brugge vs Mechelen?

Cercle Brugge 2-3 Mechelen in the Belgium - Pro League on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cercle Brugge vs Mechelen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cercle Brugge win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Cercle Brugge 49%, draw 19%, Mechelen 32%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cercle Brugge) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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