KTP Kotka 2-4 PK-35 ry — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Ykköscup, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.57
Draw
20%
3.94
Away
31%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
22%
4.27
2-3 Goals
42%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
2.99
6+ Goals
11%
9.13
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.27 — our 22% vs market 18.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
7%
2/1
10%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
59%
-10.2pp
20%
Draw
22%
-2.2pp
31%
Away Win
19%
+12.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.4pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KTP Kotka EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY PK-35 ry EU Bookmakers 22%
-24% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-71% / -100% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
384 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KTP Kotka
2W-0D-0L
AWAY PK-35 ry
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.09.2022 PK-35 ry PK-35 ry 0-1 HT 0-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN2
22.06.2022 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 4-0 HT 1-0 PK-35 ry PK-35 ry FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME KTP Kotka
2-4
AWAY PK-35 ry
65% Ball Possession 35%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH KTP Kotka vs PK-35 ry
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PK-35 ry beat KTP Kotka 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was KTP Kotka at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, KTP Kotka had 65% of the ball to PK-35 ry's 35%, shots finished 12-9.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, KTP Kotka had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for KTP Kotka and 0.00 for PK-35 ry.

What was the final score of KTP Kotka vs PK-35 ry?

KTP Kotka 2-4 PK-35 ry in the Finland - Ykköscup on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KTP Kotka vs PK-35 ry?

Before kick-off our model rated a KTP Kotka win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split KTP Kotka 49%, draw 20%, PK-35 ry 31%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (KTP Kotka), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (KTP Kotka) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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