Penybont 0-1 Pontypridd Town AFC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
30%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.26
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
3.61
6+ Goals
9%
14.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 32% vs market 25.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-6.9pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.8pp
30%
Away Win
22%
+8.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.5pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penybont EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Pontypridd Town AFC EU Bookmakers 25%
+1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.99/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.07
+17% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +53%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
318 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penybont
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Pontypridd Town AFC
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
55% Ball Possession 45%
6 Total Shots 6
1 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
31.12.2023 Penybont Penybont 1-0 HT 1-0 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC GAL
25.08.2023 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC 0-0 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
23.12.2022 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC 0-1 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
27.09.2022 Penybont Penybont 1-1 HT 1-1 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penybont
0-1
AWAY Pontypridd Town AFC
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Penybont vs Pontypridd Town AFC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pontypridd Town AFC squeezed past Penybont 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Penybont at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Penybont had 57% of the ball to Pontypridd Town AFC's 43%, shots finished 9-4.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Penybont had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Penybont and 0.25 for Pontypridd Town AFC.

What was the final score of Penybont vs Pontypridd Town AFC?

Penybont 0-1 Pontypridd Town AFC in the Wales - Premier League on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penybont vs Pontypridd Town AFC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Penybont 46%, draw 23%, Pontypridd Town AFC 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Penybont) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Penybont) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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