Hajduk Split 1-0 Istra 1961 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒19:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.32
Draw
27%
4.62
Away
22%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.44
No
51%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.16
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.72
6+ Goals
10%
15.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 27% vs market 26.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
72%
-21.0pp
27%
Draw
19%
+8.2pp
22%
Away Win
10%
+12.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
37%
+11.9pp
51%
BTTS No
63%
-11.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 12%
-3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +11%
1.63/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.73
-5% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
314 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 70%
29.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.4
23.6 Crosses 9.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hajduk Split
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Istra 1961
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.21 xG 0.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
358 Passes 304
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 10
25 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.11.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-2 HT 0-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
02.09.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 0-1 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
07.04.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-2 HT 2-2 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
29.01.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 3-0 HT 1-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
17.09.2022 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-2 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
17.07.2022 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-2 HT 0-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hajduk Split
1-0
AWAY Istra 1961
0.61 xG 0.23
60% Ball Possession 40%
7 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 5
377 Passes 232
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 10
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hajduk Split nicked a narrow win over Istra 1961 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Hajduk Split as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Hajduk Split had 60% of the ball to Istra 1961's 40%, shots finished 7-7, expected goals 0.61 to 0.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Hajduk Split and 1.33 for Istra 1961.

What was the final score of Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961?

Hajduk Split 1-0 Istra 1961 in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Hajduk Split 51%, draw 27%, Istra 1961 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hajduk Split), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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