Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 2 Mar 2024

Sparta Rotterdam
1-1 HT 0-1
AZ Alkmaar
📅02/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.17
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
40%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
1.82
Over 2.5
58%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.23
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.64
6+ Goals
11%
14.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.64 — our 25% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.31
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
13%
7.13
X/2
13%
4.47
X/X
12%
4.66
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.76
2/X
6%
13.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 7% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
28%
+7.7pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.2pp
40%
Away Win
45%
-5.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
51%
-9.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
49%
+9.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.6pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sparta Rotterdam v AZ Alkmaar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sparta Rotterdam EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 49%
-9% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.33/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/1.36
-23% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +1%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
311 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 80%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.6
20.6 Crosses 15.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7

Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sparta Rotterdam
1W-1D-4L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.83 xG 2.03
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
320 Passes 491
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Box Touches 35
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
17.09.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-0 HT 2-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
08.04.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 0-1 HT 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
14.08.2022 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 2-3 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
30.04.2022 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
05.12.2021 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 3-1 HT 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
10.04.2021 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-0 HT 1-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL

Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 AZ Alkmaar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sparta Rotterdam
1-1
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
0.96 xG 1.22
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
299 Passes 391
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
25 Box Touches 29
22 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (36% / 24% / 40%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sparta Rotterdam had 45% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 55%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 0.96 to 1.22.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.83 for AZ Alkmaar.

What was the final score of Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?

Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sparta Rotterdam 36%, draw 24%, AZ Alkmaar 40%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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