Vitesse 1-2 Twente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 2 Mar 2024

Vitesse
1-2 HT 1-1
Twente
📅02/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Vitesse vs Twente Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.75
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
50%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.18
Over 2.5
57%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.63
No
43%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.34
2-3 Goals
42%
1.88
4-5 Goals
25%
2.97
6+ Goals
12%
8.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
6.53
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
21.2
1/X
10%
14.8
X/1
11%
9.22
X/2
19%
4.17
X/X
5%
5.75
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.19
2/X
9%
14.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.2 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
23%
+3.7pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.1pp
50%
Away Win
54%
-3.7pp
43%
Under 2.5
42%
+1.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
58%
-1.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
57%
-0.3pp
43%
BTTS No
43%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vitesse v Twente — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitesse EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Twente EU Bookmakers 58%
+4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
0.94/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.85/1.09
-21% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +34%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
316 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 80%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.3
16.5 Crosses 20.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.7

Vitesse vs Twente Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitesse
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Twente
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.32 xG 1.78
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
309 Passes 366
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
27.09.2023 Twente Twente 1-0 HT 1-0 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
25.01.2023 Vitesse Vitesse 2-2 HT 1-1 Twente Twente HOL
01.10.2022 Twente Twente 3-0 HT 1-0 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
05.02.2022 Twente Twente 3-0 HT 2-0 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
19.09.2021 Vitesse Vitesse 1-4 HT 0-2 Twente Twente HOL
03.04.2021 Twente Twente 1-2 HT 1-1 Vitesse Vitesse HOL

Vitesse 1-2 Twente — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitesse
1-2
AWAY Twente
0.35 xG 1.88
54% Ball Possession 46%
6 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 8
369 Passes 299
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 30
10 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vitesse vs Twente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Twente nicked a narrow win over Vitesse 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Twente as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Vitesse had 54% of the ball to Twente's 46%, shots finished 6-15, expected goals 0.35 to 1.88 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Twente's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Twente led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Vitesse and 2.33 for Twente.

What was the final score of Vitesse vs Twente?

Vitesse 1-2 Twente in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitesse vs Twente?

Before kick-off our model rated an Twente win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Vitesse 27%, draw 23%, Twente 50%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Twente), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Twente) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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