Kagoshima United 2-1 Tokushima Vortis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒09:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.86
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.08
6+ Goals
9%
19.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 31% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
39%
+2.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.5pp
30%
Away Win
33%
-2.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.6pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kagoshima United EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Tokushima Vortis EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +3%
0.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/0.99
-100% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +14%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
312 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kagoshima United
2-1
AWAY Tokushima Vortis
46% Ball Possession 54%
19 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kagoshima United vs Tokushima Vortis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kagoshima United squeezed past Tokushima Vortis 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Kagoshima United as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kagoshima United had 46% of the ball to Tokushima Vortis's 54%, shots finished 19-8.

What was the final score of Kagoshima United vs Tokushima Vortis?

Kagoshima United 2-1 Tokushima Vortis in the Japan - J2 League on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kagoshima United vs Tokushima Vortis?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kagoshima United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Kagoshima United 41%, draw 28%, Tokushima Vortis 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kagoshima United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kagoshima United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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