V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 Vegalta Sendai — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 2 Mar 2024

V-Varen Nagasaki
1-2 HT 0-1
Vegalta Sendai
📅02/03/2024 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Japan - J2 League – 2024

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Vegalta Sendai Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.82
Over 2.5
51%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.24
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.63
6+ Goals
10%
14.8
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.63 — our 27% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.8pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.2pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.1pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

V-Varen Nagasaki v Vegalta Sendai — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Vegalta Sendai EU Bookmakers 33%
+1% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +13%
1.62/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.34
+21% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
360 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.3

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Vegalta Sendai Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Vegalta Sendai
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.54 xG 0.79
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
209 Passes 484
72% Pass Accuracy 86%
10 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
04.11.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-1 HT 1-0 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai JAP2
01.04.2023 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai 0-1 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
23.07.2022 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai 1-2 HT 0-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
08.05.2022 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-2 HT 0-1 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai JAP2
18.09.2019 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-1 HT 0-0 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai JPK
22.09.2018 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 HT 0-0 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai JAP

V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 Vegalta Sendai — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
1-2
AWAY Vegalta Sendai
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs Vegalta Sendai
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vegalta Sendai squeezed past V-Varen Nagasaki 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was V-Varen Nagasaki at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 54% of the ball to Vegalta Sendai's 46%, shots finished 8-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 0.83 for Vegalta Sendai.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs Vegalta Sendai?

V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 Vegalta Sendai in the Japan - J2 League on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Vegalta Sendai?

Before kick-off our model rated a V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 42%, draw 27%, Vegalta Sendai 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP2 More Japan - J2 League
2 Mar 2024
08:00 Oita Trinita vs Yokohama FC Analysis →
08:00 Mito HollyHock vs Ventforet Kofu Analysis →
08:00 JEF United vs Fujieda MYFC Analysis →
08:00 Shimizu S-Pulse vs Ehime FC Analysis →
09:10 Kagoshima United vs Tokushima Vortis Analysis →