Uniao De Leiria 2-3 Mafra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.68
Over 2.5
39%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.77
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.23
6+ Goals
8%
20.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.77 — our 31% vs market 30.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-3.0pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.3pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.8pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+5.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-5.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.4pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Mafra EU Bookmakers 29%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -2%
1.63/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.42
+14% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
344 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.6 Crosses 18.1
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uniao De Leiria
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Mafra
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.98 xG 1.81
47% Ball Possession 53%
17 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
354 Passes 428
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
08.10.2023 Mafra Mafra 3-0 HT 2-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uniao De Leiria
2-3
AWAY Mafra
1.79 xG 2.24
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
332 Passes 339
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Uniao De Leiria vs Mafra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mafra nicked a narrow win over Uniao De Leiria 3-2 away from home. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Uniao De Leiria at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Uniao De Leiria had 51% of the ball to Mafra's 49%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 1.79 to 2.24.

What was the final score of Uniao De Leiria vs Mafra?

Uniao De Leiria 2-3 Mafra in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uniao De Leiria vs Mafra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uniao De Leiria win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Uniao De Leiria 44%, draw 27%, Mafra 28%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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