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Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Adelaide United (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Wellington Phoenix (K) v Adelaide United (K) — Team-Based Signals
Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Adelaide United (K) Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
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2-1
HT 0-1
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Wellington Phoenix (K)
AVUSTW
Wellington Phoenix (K) 1-3 Adelaide United (K) — Actual Match Statistics
Adelaide United (K) got the better of Wellington Phoenix (K) 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Wellington Phoenix (K) at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) came in.
On the day, Wellington Phoenix (K) had 51% of the ball to Adelaide United (K)'s 49%, shots finished 8-31, expected goals 0.78 to 3.88.
For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Wellington Phoenix (K) and 1.00 for Adelaide United (K).
What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Adelaide United (K)?
Wellington Phoenix (K) 1-3 Adelaide United (K) in the Australia - W-League on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Adelaide United (K)?
Before kick-off our model rated a Wellington Phoenix (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix (K) 43%, draw 26%, Adelaide United (K) 31%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Wellington Phoenix (K)) went the other way.