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Adelaide United (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Adelaide United (K) v Wellington Phoenix (K) — Team-Based Signals
Adelaide United (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K) Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
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2-1
HT 0-1
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Wellington Phoenix (K)
AVUSTW
Adelaide United (K) 2-1 Wellington Phoenix (K) — Actual Match Statistics
Adelaide United (K) nicked a narrow win over Wellington Phoenix (K) 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.
Our pre-match split (38% / 23% / 39%) promised a tight game; Adelaide United (K) found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Adelaide United (K) had 50% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix (K)'s 50%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 1.38 to 1.23.
For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix (K) led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Adelaide United (K) and 2.00 for Wellington Phoenix (K).
What was the final score of Adelaide United (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K)?
Adelaide United (K) 2-1 Wellington Phoenix (K) in the Australia - W-League on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Adelaide United (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K)?
Before kick-off our model rated an Wellington Phoenix (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Adelaide United (K) 38%, draw 23%, Wellington Phoenix (K) 39%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.