Asan Mugunghwa 3-2 Paju Citizen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Challenge, 2 Mar 2026

📅02/03/2026 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.64
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.25
2-3 Goals
47%
1.73
4-5 Goals
17%
3.26
6+ Goals
8%
12.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 28% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
24%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
57%
-0.8pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.8pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+3.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.0pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Asan Mugunghwa EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Paju Citizen EU Bookmakers 22%
-9% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-20% / +61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
379 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 75%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.6 Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Asan Mugunghwa
3-2
AWAY Paju Citizen
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
336 Passes 180
75% Pass Accuracy 66%
21 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Asan Mugunghwa vs Paju Citizen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Asan Mugunghwa nicked a narrow win over Paju Citizen 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Asan Mugunghwa as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Asan Mugunghwa had 60% of the ball to Paju Citizen's 40%, shots finished 14-14.

What was the final score of Asan Mugunghwa vs Paju Citizen?

Asan Mugunghwa 3-2 Paju Citizen in the South Kore - K League Challenge on 02/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Asan Mugunghwa vs Paju Citizen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Asan Mugunghwa win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Asan Mugunghwa 56%, draw 21%, Paju Citizen 23%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Asan Mugunghwa), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Asan Mugunghwa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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