Central Coast Mariners 2-1 Melbourne City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 2 Apr 2024

Central Coast Mariners
2-1 HT 0-0
Melbourne City
📅02/04/2024 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
37%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
1.97
Over 2.5
61%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.63
No
38%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
3.66
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
27%
3.3
6+ Goals
13%
11.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.31
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
29.0
1/X
8%
12.8
X/1
11%
5.25
X/2
14%
6.05
X/X
13%
4.83
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
14%
4.04
2/X
6%
12.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.0 — our 9% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
40%
-4.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
37%
Away Win
33%
+3.5pp
39%
Under 2.5
47%
-7.5pp
61%
Over 2.5
53%
+7.5pp
62%
BTTS Yes
57%
+5.2pp
38%
BTTS No
43%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Central Coast Mariners v Melbourne City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Central Coast Mariners EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 37%
+7% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -10%
1.88/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.68
+3% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 79%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
18.3 Crosses 18.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9

Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Central Coast Mariners
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Melbourne City
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.83 xG 1.79
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
314 Passes 420
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
21.01.2024 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 2-1 HT 0-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
17.12.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 3-3 HT 1-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
03.06.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 1-6 HT 1-2 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
15.04.2023 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 1-1 HT 0-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
27.12.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 1-0 HT 1-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
22.02.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 3-2 HT 1-1 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS

Central Coast Mariners 2-1 Melbourne City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Central Coast Mariners
2-1
AWAY Melbourne City
1.83 xG 2.21
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 7
286 Passes 413
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Central Coast Mariners nicked a narrow win over Melbourne City 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 27% / 37% — and on the day Central Coast Mariners made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

On the day, Central Coast Mariners had 39% of the ball to Melbourne City's 61%, shots finished 12-18, expected goals 1.83 to 2.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Central Coast Mariners and 1.67 for Melbourne City.

What was the final score of Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City?

Central Coast Mariners 2-1 Melbourne City in the Australia - A-League on 02/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Central Coast Mariners 36%, draw 27%, Melbourne City 37%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Melbourne City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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