Kisvarda 3-2 MTK Budapest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - Cup, 2 Apr 2024

📅02/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
38%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.26
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.61
6+ Goals
10%
14.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 30% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
19%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.5pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-3.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.2pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kisvarda EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY MTK Budapest EU Bookmakers 45%
-48% / -48% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-100% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
277 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kisvarda
3W-2D-1L
AWAY MTK Budapest
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.98 xG 1.15
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
342 Passes 402
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.03.2024 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 2-1 HT 2-0 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
25.11.2023 Kisvarda Kisvarda 3-1 HT 1-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
11.08.2023 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 0-0 HT 0-0 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
19.03.2022 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 0-0 HT 0-0 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
27.11.2021 Kisvarda Kisvarda 5-0 HT 2-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
13.08.2021 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 1-2 HT 1-0 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kisvarda
3-2
AWAY MTK Budapest
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kisvarda vs MTK Budapest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kisvarda edged past MTK Budapest 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (35% / 27% / 38%) promised a tight game; Kisvarda found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kisvarda had 43% of the ball to MTK Budapest's 57%, shots finished 9-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kisvarda had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Kisvarda and 0.67 for MTK Budapest.

What was the final score of Kisvarda vs MTK Budapest?

Kisvarda 3-2 MTK Budapest in the Hungary - Cup on 02/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kisvarda vs MTK Budapest?

Before kick-off our model rated an MTK Budapest win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Kisvarda 35%, draw 27%, MTK Budapest 38%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (MTK Budapest) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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