MTK Budapest 2-1 Kisvarda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 17 Mar 2024

MTK Budapest
2-1 HT 2-0
Kisvarda
📅17/03/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Hungary - NB I – 2023/2024

MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.21
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
25%
3.66
6+ Goals
10%
15.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-4.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.9pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+5.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.2pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

MTK Budapest v Kisvarda — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MTK Budapest EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Kisvarda EU Bookmakers 32%
-8% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -16%
1.43/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.59
-24% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
282 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 79%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
14.2 Crosses 16.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.7

MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MTK Budapest
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Kisvarda
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.85 xG 0.93
49% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
404 Passes 316
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Kisvarda Kisvarda 3-1 HT 1-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
11.08.2023 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 0-0 HT 0-0 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
19.03.2022 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 0-0 HT 0-0 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
27.11.2021 Kisvarda Kisvarda 5-0 HT 2-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
13.08.2021 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 1-2 HT 1-0 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
21.04.2021 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 0-1 HT 0-1 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC

MTK Budapest 2-1 Kisvarda — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MTK Budapest
2-1
AWAY Kisvarda
1.74 xG 1.09
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 9
396 Passes 395
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MTK Budapest squeezed past Kisvarda 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 34%) promised a tight game; MTK Budapest found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, MTK Budapest had 49% of the ball to Kisvarda's 51%, shots finished 14-18, expected goals 1.74 to 1.09.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kisvarda led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for MTK Budapest and 1.83 for Kisvarda.

What was the final score of MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda?

MTK Budapest 2-1 Kisvarda in the Hungary - NB I on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda?

Before kick-off our model rated a MTK Budapest win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split MTK Budapest 40%, draw 26%, Kisvarda 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (MTK Budapest) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (MTK Budapest) ✗ Under 2.5
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