Benfica 2-2 Sporting CP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 2 Apr 2024

Benfica
2-2 HT 0-0
Sporting CP
📅02/04/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Portugal - Cup – 2023/2024

Benfica vs Sporting CP Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
34%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.06
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
3.08
6+ Goals
11%
9.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.94
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
9%
12.5
X/1
15%
5.02
X/2
11%
6.77
X/X
8%
5.02
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
24.0
2/2
17%
4.48
2/X
8%
12.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 7% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-3.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+4.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.3pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Benfica v Sporting CP — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 34%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -39% / -39%
2.98/1.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.01/1.00
+102% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +40%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
379 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
– Crosses 13.0
– Yellow Cards 0.0

Benfica vs Sporting CP Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Sporting CP
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.40 xG 1.44
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
354 Passes 372
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.02.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-1 HT 1-0 Benfica Benfica POK
12.11.2023 Benfica Benfica 2-1 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
21.05.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-2 HT 2-0 Benfica Benfica POR
15.01.2023 Benfica Benfica 2-2 HT 1-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
17.04.2022 Sporting CP Sporting CP 0-2 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR
29.01.2022 Benfica Benfica 1-2 HT 1-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP PORLC

Benfica 2-2 Sporting CP — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
2-2
AWAY Sporting CP
3.32 xG 1.37
49% Ball Possession 51%
21 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 4
346 Passes 381
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
41 Box Touches 19
27 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Sporting CP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica and Sporting CP couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 34% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Benfica had 49% of the ball to Sporting CP's 51%, shots finished 21-15, expected goals 3.32 to 1.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Benfica and 1.50 for Sporting CP.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Sporting CP?

Benfica 2-2 Sporting CP in the Portugal - Cup on 02/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Sporting CP?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Benfica 40%, draw 26%, Sporting CP 34%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Benfica) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ BTTS Yes
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