Sporting CP 2-1 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 29 Feb 2024

📅29/02/2024 · 🕒23:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.9
Over 2.5
56%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.73
No
41%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.38
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
27%
3.51
6+ Goals
11%
13.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
44%
-3.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.5pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+4.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
49%
-4.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
51%
+4.6pp
59%
BTTS Yes
54%
+5.6pp
41%
BTTS No
46%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
1.26/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.18
-14% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -55% / +18%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
303 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 78%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.0 Crosses
6.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Benfica
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.46 xG 1.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
333 Passes 344
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
12.11.2023 Benfica Benfica 2-1 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
21.05.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-2 HT 2-0 Benfica Benfica POR
15.01.2023 Benfica Benfica 2-2 HT 1-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
17.04.2022 Sporting CP Sporting CP 0-2 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR
29.01.2022 Benfica Benfica 1-2 HT 1-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP PORLC
04.12.2021 Benfica Benfica 1-3 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP
2-1
AWAY Benfica
1.28 xG 0.61
48% Ball Possession 52%
19 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
407 Passes 424
89% Pass Accuracy 86%
42 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sporting CP vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP squeezed past Benfica 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Sporting CP had 48% of the ball to Benfica's 52%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 1.28 to 0.61.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sporting CP and 1.67 for Benfica.

What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Benfica?

Sporting CP 2-1 Benfica in the Portugal - Cup on 29/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP 41%, draw 26%, Benfica 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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