Monterey Bay vs El Farolito Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Monterey Bay v El Farolito — Team-Based Signals
Monterey Bay 1-2 El Farolito — Actual Match Statistics
El Farolito nicked a narrow win over Monterey Bay 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Monterey Bay at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.
On the day, Monterey Bay had 51% of the ball to El Farolito's 49%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 1.94 to 1.03 — the balance of chances actually favoured Monterey Bay.
What was the final score of Monterey Bay vs El Farolito?
Monterey Bay 1-2 El Farolito in the USA - Open Cup on 02/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Monterey Bay vs El Farolito?
Before kick-off our model rated a Monterey Bay win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Monterey Bay 57%, draw 22%, El Farolito 21%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Monterey Bay), BTTS No went the other way.