Al-Qadsiah 1-0 Al Raed — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Copa del Rey, 2 Apr 2025

📅02/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.3
Draw
27%
4.81
Away
16%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.07
Over 2.5
45%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.19
No
61%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.76
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.04
6+ Goals
6%
9.81
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 32% vs market 20.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1/2
5%
1/X
3%
X/1
10%
X/2
5%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
73%
-15.6pp
27%
Draw
18%
+9.4pp
16%
Away Win
10%
+6.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
44%
+10.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
56%
-10.8pp
39%
BTTS Yes
42%
-2.5pp
61%
BTTS No
58%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al-Qadsiah EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Raed EU Bookmakers 12%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
2.62/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.05/1.49
+90% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +6%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
431 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 72%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 5.0
16.0 Crosses 7.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al-Qadsiah
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Al Raed
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.60 xG 0.66
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
348 Passes 322
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.02.2025 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah 2-0 HT 1-0 Al Raed Al Raed SUUD
27.08.2024 Al Raed Al Raed 0-1 HT 0-0 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah SUUD
16.04.2021 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah 0-1 HT 0-0 Al Raed Al Raed SUUD
02.01.2021 Al Raed Al Raed 2-2 HT 2-0 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah SUUD
01.03.2019 Al Raed Al Raed 0-0 HT 0-0 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah SUUD
23.11.2018 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah 3-1 HT 1-0 Al Raed Al Raed SUUD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al-Qadsiah
1-0
AWAY Al Raed
2.22 xG 0.21
63% Ball Possession 37%
27 Total Shots 2
9 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 0
518 Passes 279
90% Pass Accuracy 76%
38 Box Touches 11
51 Crosses 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Al-Qadsiah vs Al Raed
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al-Qadsiah edged past Al Raed 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Al-Qadsiah as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Al-Qadsiah had 63% of the ball to Al Raed's 37%, shots finished 27-2, expected goals 2.22 to 0.21 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Al-Qadsiah's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al-Qadsiah had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Al-Qadsiah and 0.67 for Al Raed.

What was the final score of Al-Qadsiah vs Al Raed?

Al-Qadsiah 1-0 Al Raed in the Saudi Arabia Copa del Rey on 02/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al-Qadsiah vs Al Raed?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al-Qadsiah win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Al-Qadsiah 57%, draw 27%, Al Raed 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al-Qadsiah), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al-Qadsiah) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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